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财迷插播‖美股大跌、诺奖得主预警股市及巴雷特( 三 )

财迷插播‖美股大跌、诺奖得主预警股市及巴雷特

财迷插播‖美股大跌、诺奖得主预警股市及巴雷特

财迷插播‖美股大跌、诺奖得主预警股市及巴雷特

Robert Shiller said in a New York Timesop-ed article on Friday that the coronavirus pandemic and the upcoming election had caused investors to fear a stock-market crash more than they have in years.罗伯特·希勒（Robert Shiller）周五在《纽约时报》的一篇专栏文章中说 ， 冠状病毒大流行和即将举行的大选使投资者更加担心股市崩盘 ， 这是多年来所未见的 。The Nobel-winning economist saidseveral of his stock-market-confidence indexes were demonstrating a low levelof investor confidence while stock prices were "trading at very highlevels."这位获得诺贝尔奖的经济学家说 ， 他的几个股票市场信心指数表明投资者信心水平低下 ， 而股价却“处于非常高的水平上” 。"That volatile combination doesn""""tmean that a crash will occur, but it suggests that the risk of one is relatively high," Shiller said.席勒说：“这种动荡的组合并不意味着将发生崩溃 ， 但它表明发生事故的风险相对较高 。 ”A rise in COVID-19 cases or a chaotic election could trigger a "change in mass psychology" and bring on a market crash, he concluded.他总结说 ， COVID-19病例的增加或选举的混乱可能会引发“大众心理的变化”并引发市场崩溃 。The Nobel-winning economist Robert Shiller said the coronavirus crisis and the upcoming election had driven investor fears of a major stock-market crash to the highest levels in manyyears.诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特·席勒（Robert Shiller）说 ， 冠状病毒危机和即将举行的大选使投资者担心股市大跌已达多年来的最高水平 。But while investor confidence in the market is low, stock prices are "trading at very high levels," hewrote in a New York Times op-ed article on Friday.但他在周五《纽约时报》专栏文章中写道 ， 尽管投资者对市场的信心很低 ， 但股价却“处于非常高的水平” 。"That volatile combination doesn""""tmean that a crash will occur, but it suggests that the risk of one is relativelyhigh. This is a time to be careful," the Yale economist said.耶鲁大学的经济学家说：“这种动荡的组合并不意味着将要发生崩溃 ， 但这表明一个人的风险相对较高 。 这是要谨慎的时候 。 ”Shiller has developed severalstock-market-confidence indexes over his decades-long career. He said many ofthem were demonstrating that investors are more nervous than ever about thestock market.Shiller在他数十年的职业生涯中建立了多个股票市场信心指数 。 他说 ， 其中许多人表明 ， 投资者对股票市场比以往任何时候都更加紧张 。For example, he said his Crash Confidence Index, which tracks how many investors say the probability of a catastrophic market crash in the US in the next six months is less than 10%,hit a record low in August, when just 13% of investors surveyed said they hadthat level of confidence in the market.例如 ， 他表示 ， 他的崩溃信心指数追踪了多少投资者 ， 称未来六个月美国发生灾难性市场崩溃的可能性不到10％ ， 在八月份创下历史新低 ， 当时只有13％的投资者接受调查的人士表示 ， 他们对市场具有这种信心 。In September, Shiller said, the reading"was still extremely low."席勒说 ， 九月份的读数“仍然很低” 。"In short, an overwhelming majority of investors said there was a greater than 10 percent probability ofan imminent crash — really, a remarkable indicator that people are quiteworried," Shiller said.席勒说：“总之 ， 绝大多数的投资者表示 ， 即将发生崩溃的可能性大于10％ ， 这确实是人们非常担心的一个明显迹象 。 ”Shiller said that another one of hisindexes, the Valuation Confidence Index, was also near a record low,demonstrating that a large number of investors think the market is too highly priced.席勒说 ， 他的另一个指数 ， 估值信心指数 ， 也接近历史低点 ， 表明大量投资者认为市场价格过高 。The economist also said the CAPE ratio,which he helped to develop, suggested that the market looked similarly valuedas periods right before the Great Depression and the dot-com bubble burst inthe early 2000s.这位经济学家还说 ， 他帮助发展的CAPE比率表明 ， 在大萧条和互联网泡沫于2000年代初破裂之前的时期 ， 市场的价值似乎相似 。But "the low confidence readingsand the high stock prices won""""t, on their own, cause a market crash,"Shiller said. "Another dynamic would need to be in effect."但希勒说：“低信心指数和高股价本身不会导致市场崩溃 。 ” “另一种动力需要生效 。 ”An increase in coronavirus cases or achaotic election could "shake people up," he said. And any further similarities between the market now and the market before previous crashescould "create a psychological sense of the risk."他说 ， 冠状病毒病例的增加或选举的混乱可能会“震撼人心” 。 现在的市场与之前的崩盘之前的市场之间的任何进一步相似之处都可能“产生一种心理上的风险意识” 。"The decision to invest in thestock market is for some people a bit of an adventure," Shiller said,adding that "the market may be vulnerable to a change in mass psychology,one that might dampen this sense of adventure and bring on a crash."席勒说：“对某些人来说 ， 投资股票市场的决定有些冒险 。 ”他补充说：“市场可能容易受到大众心理变化的影响 ， 这可能会抑制这种冒险意识并带来一种冒险 。 崩溃 。 ”The economist told investors todiversify in asset classes and not be overexposed to US stocks to brace for theperiod ahead.这位经济学家告诉投资者 ， 在资产类别上要多样化 ， 并且在未来一段时期内 ， 不要过度暴露于美国股市 。"No one knows the future,"Shiller said, "but given the general lack of investor confidence amid apandemic and political polarization, there is a chance that a negative,self-fulfilling prophecy will flourish."席勒说：“没有人知道未来 ， 但是鉴于在大流行和政治两极分化中普遍缺乏投资者信心 ， 因此 ， 一种消极的 ， 自我实现的预言很可能会盛行 。 ”第四篇文章：《参议院确认川普提名的巴雷特并将重塑最高法院——共和党人搞了一个胆大包天的大新闻 ， 他们在选举临近的五个多星期内推翻了最高法院的提名》


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